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Why Gonzaga will win it all
2/25/2015 12:10:59 PM

By Chad Kimberley
Splash Column

I love being a teacher. I love inspiring and educating. I love explaining and encouraging. And, of course, there are moments when my students teach me those life lessons that I am supposed to be offering to them.

Out of a recent conversation came a quote that will remain with me for quite a while - "bitterness sucks" - and with those words I had to come face to face with the realization that I am a bitter sports fan. I struggle with celebrating with others when their team finds success and my team finds the toilet. When the room full of Seahawks fans groaned as New England intercepted the potential Super Bowl winning touchdown pass, I silently high-fived the other bitter Bears fans who might have been watching the game. 

So, due to these insightful group of students, I am going to turn a leaf with this column. I am going to go from being a bitter fan to being a celebratory fan for my local friends. As March Madness descends upon us, I am faced with the reality that if my Iowa Hawkeyes make the tournament, it will probably be as a No. 8 or No. 9 seed, which likely means a one win and done tournament run.

But for the Bulldog fans among us, this could very well be the year they make a run throughout March and finish their season in early April by cutting down the nets. And honestly, they are due. Since the magical run in 1999 where they came up one win short of the Final Four, they have played in 15 straight tournaments and their record is 16-15, including a streak of five straight second-round exits. 

During that time, all sorts of mid-majors - Dayton, Wichita State, Butler, VCU, Davidson, George Mason, Kent State, Tulsa - have made it to the Elite Eight or the Final Four while Gonzaga has yet to return to the glory of '99. Another second-round exit may cause Gonzaga to gain the title of "best mid-major to not make the Final Four."

Yet, I believe this could be the year. 

Honestly, after seven years out here in Eastern Washington, I may be starting to become a GU fan. Don't get me wrong, my Hawkeyes still rank 1-4 on my top five list, but GU is starting to work its way into that final spot. I even have a GU sweatshirt that I may pull on once my Hawkeyes are eliminated (although I didn't buy it as it was a freebie from a camp I took my basketball team to this summer). I took my daughter and some friends to a women's game last year and had a great time, and I may even have to buy some gear for the kids if we continue to live out here in Liberty Lake. 

So as I put my bitterness aside, I want to lay out what I believe will be the steps that the Bulldogs will take to be the last team standing when they play "One Shining Moment."

First Round: Over the last 15 years, the Bulldogs have only gone out in the first round three times, and that was when they were a No. 6 or higher seed. At the same time, there has NEVER been a No. 1 seed to lose in the first round since the tournament expanded in 1985, so the best move for GU will be to close out the regular season without another loss, roll through the WCC postseason tournament and earn the No. 1 seed and a first-round victory.

Second Round: The Bulldogs have had a rough run of it the last few years. They have lost here as a No. 1 seed to an eventual Final Four Wichita State team and also as No. 8 seeds to the top team in their bracket. But this year the key for them will be KeyArena. If GU runs through the rest of the year and earns the No. 1 seed, it is likely they will be placed in Seattle, and I trust all the local fans that trek across the pass will bring an energy that the team will feed off of and not let them experience another second-round exit.

Sweet Sixteen: This may be the "trap" game for the Bulldogs in the tournament. After five years of second-round exits, GU will be celebrating making it to the Sweet Sixteen, and their reward will be matching up with, in all probability, a No. 4 or No. 5 seed out of a major conference (like Oklahoma or Utah), or even a mid-major such as VCU or Wichita State. The European connection of Przemek Karnowski and Domantas Sabonis become household names as the inside game of GU powers them into the Elite Eight.

Elite Eight: In many ways, this is the hardest game of the tournament run. You are literally one step away from the Final Four, one step to the culmination of years and years of hard work by players and coaches. And GU has one important aspect that they can tap into that many programs don't have in this day and age of one-and-done college basketball: seniors, and even more important, senior guards. I can see the game coming down to one possession or even one free throw, and the senior guard trio of Kevin Pangos, Gary Bell Jr. and Byron Wesley ensure the Bulldogs go to the ultimate dance. 

National Semifinal: I am predicting blowout here. Primarily for two reasons: first off, I am running up against my word count for this column. Secondly, I think Gonzaga may end up matched up with a fellow mid-major, and this lopsided win clearly sets them apart as the best mid-major in the nation. 

Championship Game: They say defense wins championships and because of that I am imagining either Gonzaga playing Kentucky or Virginia for the national championship. With both teams giving up just over 50 points a game, the outcome will be decided by one statistic in which Gonzaga leads the nation - shooting percentage. In a game where there will be limited opportunities to score, you have to make the shots you get, and by that GU wins 58-56. Just for irony's sake, the game-winning shot to beat Kentucky will be made by their own transfer: Kyle Wiltjer.

P.S. This whole column is invalid and moot if the Iowa Hawkeyes end up with a No. 8 seed and play GU in the second round. If that happens, Iowa gives GU their sixth straight second-round loss. 

P.P.S. The GU women make it to the Elite Eight.

Chad Kimberley is a local teacher and coach. He lives with his family in Liberty Lake. 

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